Crisil expects RBI to hold rates at Feb 4–6 MPC meet; flags inflation firming and FY27 growth easing

Ratings agency Crisil has projected that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep key policy interest rates unchanged at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for 4–6 February 2026. The expectation comes after the central bank cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in its December meeting to 5.25% and maintained a neutral, data-dependent stance.

Crisil’s view is anchored in inflation dynamics that appear to be firming from very low levels. Media coverage citing the report said retail inflation rose in December compared with November, signalling that price pressures may be edging up even as inflation remains below the RBI’s stated comfort range. The key message for markets is that the RBI may prefer to pause and assess incoming data rather than rush into another move.

Why the RBI pause matters for borrowers and investors

If the policy rate is held, it could mean relative stability for loan pricing in the near term, though actual borrowing costs also depend on bank transmission, liquidity conditions and credit demand. For investors, the outlook shapes expectations for bond yields and the rate path over the next few policy cycles, especially as inflation remains the decisive variable.

In its broader macro view, Crisil also projected that GDP growth could ease to around 6.7% in FY27. That forward-looking call matters for corporate planning, capital expenditure decisions and budget assumptions, since it speaks to the trajectory of demand and the sustainability of the current growth cycle.

The ‘Goldilocks’ framing and what it implies

Recent commentary around India’s macro conditions has described a rare period where growth remains strong while inflation has been unusually low. But with inflation showing signs of a mild uptick, policymakers and businesses will watch closely to see whether this balance holds. For the RBI, that means calibrating policy to avoid choking growth while ensuring inflation does not re-accelerate.

With the February MPC meeting approaching, Crisil’s stance reinforces the view that the next decision may be about patience rather than action—keeping rates steady while tracking inflation, demand conditions and global financial trends that influence domestic policy choices.